ODM at crossroads as factions within threaten its existence

The unfolding events in the giant Orange Democratic Movement, four months after the demise of its founder and party leader Raila Amolo Odinga, are unfortunate and threaten the future existence of the most popular party in the country.

Interestingly, clouds are gathering within the party, exposing the hardline stand between the inner core, close family and allies of the late Raila Odinga against each other, with the current party leader Oburu Odinga-led team reading from a different script from that of widow Ida Odinga and her daughter Winnie Odinga, who have expressed their full support for retaining Edwin Sifuna as ODM secretary general.

In what is seen as the maximum boiling point of ODM, with either a make-or-break decision set to be reached, it will take the wisdom of King Solomon to piece together the cracked and ready-to-crumble ODM as other parties salivate to receive the disgruntled lot.

Also worth noting is the Mulembe nation factor in the whole affair that has seen the likes of Wycliffe Oparanya (Deputy Party Leader), Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives, Kakamega County Woman Rep and ODM National Secretary Elsie Muhanda, Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera, among other Luhya MPs amounting to 15, strongly express their support behind their own (Edwin Sifuna), whom they allege represents the Mulembe support in the ODM party.

Going by the recent sentiments emanating from a section of the Mulembe leaders supporting Sifuna’s reinstallation as the ODM secretary general, their stay and loyalty towards the party will only remain if their own is fully accommodated in the Orange party.

The Sifuna wave in ODM seems to have been underrated, and it is only after social media platforms went abuzz with calls in support of the embattled party secretary general, alongside calls of the Mulembe nation withdrawing its long, unwavering support towards ODM.

Speaking in Kakamega, the Mulembe leaders led by Oparanya and Muhanda lashed out at the Mombasa meeting where the Oburu-led team ousted Edwin Sifuna as the party secretary general, stating that they were not consulted, yet they are very important components in the formation of ODM, and termed the ousting as a plot to sideline the Mulembe nation from being at the frontline in party matters.

They expressed their support for Sifuna and warned that his ouster would crumble the party which Raila managed to put together in 20 years.

Sifuna, who has been Baba’s right-hand man, seems to have the blessing of both Ida and Winnie Odinga, pitting them against the old guard spearheaded by Oburu Odinga.

What is catching the attention of many pundits is the fact that the two warring factions are being led by Raila’s kinsmen, with Ida, her daughter and governors James Orengo and Professor Anyang Nyong’o in support of Sifuna through the Linda Mwananchi slogan, while Oburu Odinga, Gladys Wanga, Junet Mohammed, Simba Arati and Abdulswamad Nassir are spearheading the ODM Linda ground that is working with the Kenya Kwanza administration through the broad-based government.

Perhaps Governor Anyang Nyong’o, while being the acting party leader in a delegate meeting in Kakamega ahead of the party’s preparations to celebrate its 20th anniversary in Busia, announced what he repeated yesterday: that Sifuna has been one of Baba’s most trusted lieutenants and was destined for the future as far as party politics is concerned.

With Sifuna’s stay in the Orange party remaining on the weighing scale through a court order, it is time the Mulembe nation begins exhausting other options, including the Amani National Congress (ANC), which the courts recently handed back to its leader Musalia Mudavadi; Ford Kenya of Moses Wetang’ula; and DAP Kenya of Eugene Wamalwa, which still remain the Western region political outfits so far.

For the Western region supporters standing in solidarity with Edwin Sifuna, the writing is already on the wall, as social media handles are beaming with details of how Mulembe ODM supporters should jump ship using a short message code (*509#) to leave ODM and, from the reactions on the platforms, Mulembe ODM supporters are sending a strong signal that if their own (Sifuna) is not reinstalled and respected, then there is no love lost, as even Raila respected and recognised the young, energetic lawyer as a force in the Orange party.

Many social media users in support of Sifuna have scribbled all sorts of ideas, with some warning that it is time for them to decamp as their unifying factor was only “Baba”, and now the party has remained a shell of itself, with the Luos now claiming it is their own political outfit.

“We have stood with Baba for decades fighting for his space in government and he just passed away leaving us united, and only a few months later, he is yet to turn in his grave and you are already chasing his close ally. We dare you, as we will see who will be laughing last, as Sifuna, unlike Oburu, knows all the good and bad cards within the party and when to play them. The electorate in Western Kenya has largely voted for the presidential candidacy of the late Raila Odinga, a former Prime Minister who until his demise last October was the Party Leader of the Opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and the best we can expect from our ODM counterparts is to also support us instead of chasing us out of the party,” a thread read.

Their utterances seem to be carrying more weight considering yesterday’s rallies in Kitengela and Mombasa, where the Sifuna one was heavily packed compared to Oburu’s.

However, the big question remains: who among the two factions is fooling who, as the late party leader left the party in a broad-based arrangement with four of its members already appointed as Ministers: Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), John Mbadi (Finance), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy), with a ten-point agenda which Sifuna alleges the broad-based government is yet to fulfil and which he and his young politicians and supporters are using to bay for a one-term regime from the current leadership?

Many will ask: is the immediate Odinga family supporting the Sifuna-Osotsi-led team in favour of the broad-based government, or have they changed tune to support the Linda Mwananchi initiative, and if so, what happens to Baba’s wishes?

At the same time, is the Linda ground team of Oburu Odinga, Gladys Wanga, Junet Mohammed, Simba Arati, Abdulswamad Nassir and others pushing for the continuity of the earlier agreed broad-based government formation being sincere, or are they already political sellouts who seem to have sold their souls to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leadership, as is being peddled by the Sifuna faction?

On the other hand, is there a government hand in the whole affair with full intentions of splitting and weakening ODM? Is Sifuna being targeted for his hardline stand against the duo’s cordial working relationship? Above all, will the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) stand the sands of time or, like a cookie, crumble? Only time will tell.