Natembeya emerges as Luhya kingpin, dislodges Mudavadi, Wetang’ula from apex
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has been identified as the most influential and preferred kingpin of the vote-rich Luhya community.
This is according to a new opinion poll released by research firm Infotrak on Thursday, January 8, 2025.
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The survey positions Natembeya at the centre of Western Kenya politics at a time when the region is actively involved in a leadership fight ahead of the 2027 General Election.
According to the findings, 50 per cent of respondents identified Natembeya as the leader who currently wields the most influence in the Mulembe Nation politics.
The poll placed him ahead of Prime Cabinet Secretary (PCS) and President Ruto’s trusted ally Musalia Mudavadi (32%), Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna (31%) and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula at 29% respectively.
Other notable leaders include former Kakamega Governor and current Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya (14%), DAP-Kenya Party Leader Eugene Wamalwa (13%), and former Kakamega Senator and DCP Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malalah at 10%.
The results suggest a shifting power dynamic in the region, with Natembeya’s popularity cutting across age groups, gender, and counties, and particularly strong in his home base of Trans Nzoia, where his influence was reported at 70%.
Analysts attribute his rise to a confrontational approach to governance, vocal criticism of the national administration, and his appeal as a populist leader willing to articulate regional grievances clearly and without ambiguity.
When respondents were asked to identify the single most dominant political “kingpin” in Western Kenya, Natembeya again led.
He was named by 36% of respondents as the primary champion of Luhya interests.
Mudavadi followed at 18%, with Wetang’ula showing up with a 14% approval.
Oparanya received 8%, with smaller percentages shared among Sifuna, Peter Salasya, and Wamalwa.
The findings highlight a distinction between perceived influence and outright kingpin status, suggesting that while Natembeya commands unmatched visibility and sway, the political landscape in Western Kenya remains plural, with several leaders retaining loyal support bases.
The survey also measured national leadership preferences, with President William Ruto emerging as the most preferred presidential aspirant in the region, attracting 25% support.
He was followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 15 per cent, and Natembeya at 13 per cent, reflecting the governor’s growing national profile.
Notably, 25 per cent of respondents were undecided, signalling fluid voter attitudes and potential realignments as the 2027 election approaches.
Infotrak conducted the poll in December 2025, using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI).
The survey targeted registered voters aged 18 and above across Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, and Trans Nzoia counties.
