Inside Kakamega power struggle: Elsie Muhanda haunts Barasa as Oparanya enters the equation

Is Kakamega County Governor FCPA Fernandes Barasa a one-term or two-term leader?

That is the question on the lips of many voters as Woman Representative Elsie Muhanda begins her journey to unseat her one-time friend-turned-foe, a man she actively campaigned for in 2022 but with whom she is now at loggerheads.

Stalled projects, high levels of youth unemployment, and a demoralised county workforce are among the issues threatening to derail the first-term governor politically in the next eighteen months.

However, the question of who will become the third Governor of Kakamega remains unanswered. Three camps have since emerged, all wielding varying degrees of influence, though the county’s politics continue to be shaped by clan dynamics and the financial muscle required to mount a serious campaign and mobilise voters.

Barasa entered the 2022 elections financially stable and went on to defeat then Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, who also ran a heavily funded campaign backed by the now Kenya Kwanza administration under President William Ruto, then serving as Deputy President under retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.

It is now clear that Malala will be returning to the senatorial race currently held by Dr Boni Khalwale, who has once again thrown his hat into the gubernatorial contest, seeking a second chance after losing to Kakamega’s first governor, Wycliffe Oparanya, in 2017.

In 2022, Khalwale stepped down for Malala and instead vied for the Senate seat, which he reclaimed after five years in the political cold.

Many now believe he may be heading in the same direction, and should he lose again, it could mark an honourable exit from active politics after decades in public life.

Khalwale remains a lone ranger. Unlike his two main rivals, Barasa and Muhanda, who are widely viewed as the front-runners, he has chosen to campaign independently.

He was recently removed from his position as Senate Majority Whip after openly campaigning for opposition candidate Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya during the recently concluded Malava by-election.

Panyako lost to UDA’s David Ndakwa, who garnered 21,624 votes against Panyako’s 20,210.

Khalwale is also said to lack the financial muscle required to mount a formidable challenge against Barasa.

As a result, many believe Muhanda could defy the odds and become the first female governor from the Western region, buoyed by the backing of several political heavyweights.

Former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, now a Cabinet Secretary in the Ruto administration, is widely seen as championing Muhanda’s bid.

This has resonated well with voters who credit Oparanya with strong performance during his tenure and view Barasa as an underperforming successor.

Oparanya appears keen to ride on his legacy to secure Muhanda’s victory.

In addition, more than seven Members of Parliament have reportedly thrown their weight behind her, including Christopher Aseka (Khwisero), Nabii Nabwera (Lugari), and Fred Ikana (Shinyalu), her home constituency.

Muhanda is also perceived as a favourite among the country’s top leadership, with claims that COTU Secretary-General Francis Atwoli is discreetly supporting her campaign, giving her a strategic advantage.

While sections of the Kakamega county staff are said to have quietly withdrawn support for Barasa, publicly maintaining loyalty while privately campaigning against him, Muhanda has steadily expanded her grassroots reach.

Through initiatives funded by the National Government Affirmative Action Fund, including education support for needy students and empowerment of self-help groups, she has built a presence in nearly every village across the county.

Meanwhile, as the political realignments continue, allegations have emerged that some officials within the Barasa administration are engaging in widespread looting, driven by the belief that the governor may not secure a second term and that this is their final opportunity to enrich themselves.

Barasa’s deputy, Ayub Savula, who played a key role in delivering Lugari and Likuyani votes in 2022 after shelving his own ambitions, is also reportedly on his way out. It remains unclear whether he will seek to reclaim the Lugari parliamentary seat he held for ten years or make a bid for the senatorial position.